The extent and consistency of these patterns provides a stark reminder of the global scale of this climate change threat and associated risks for human health.
Our analysis revealed that over 77% of the world’s cities are likely to experience a shift towards the climate conditions of another major city by 2050, while 22% will shift to climate conditions that are not currently present for any major cities on the planet.
In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities.
Barcelona today) have taken action to combat their own environmental challenges.
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
We recognize that these models are characterized by huge amounts of uncertainty [To our knowledge, our study represents the first global analysis of the shifts in climate conditions of the world’s major cities under climate change.
Future conditions are estimated using an optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5), which considers a stabilization of COOverall 78% of the 520 Future Cities studied present a climate within the hypervolume representing covered combinations of climate conditions.
2019 Oct 16;14(10):e0224120. PLOS is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation, #C2354500, based in San Francisco, California, US
Jean-Francois Bastin, Emily Clark, Thomas Elliott, Simon Hart, Johan van den Hoogen, Iris Hordijk, Haozhi Ma, Sabiha Majumder, Gabriele Manoli, Julia Maschler, Lidong Mo, Devin Routh, Kailiang Yu, Constantin M. Zohner, Thomas W. Crowther
referred as the absolute latitudinal shift.
The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities.
Cities are colored according to the aggregated ecoregion of the world [Our analysis reveals consistent global patterns in the climate shifts of future major cities around the world over the next 30 years.
We notably predict that Madrid's climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech's climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Boxplots illustrates the distribution of the points along each of the 4 axes.
Public Library of Science The figure at the bottom (b) shows the same current (green) and future (orange) cities on the space defined by the third and fourth principal components.
Discover a faster, simpler path to publishing in a high-quality journal. Bastin JF, Clark E, Elliott T, Hart S, van den Hoogen J, Hordijk I, Ma H, Majumder S, Manoli G, Maschler J, Mo L, Routh D, Yu K, Zohner CM, Crowther TW.PLoS One. The continuous line in the boxes represents the median of the distribution, the extremities of the boxes the 1Difference between future and current climate for four cities and an example of their similar current counterpart. These city analogues, and the data we openly share, can help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, facilitating efforts to establish targeted climate response strategies. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. However, this collective action is precluded by the 'consensus gap' between scientific knowledge and public opinion. RCP 4.5), we show that the climate conditions of over 77% of world’s major cities will change to such a great extent that they will resemble more closely the conditions of another major city.
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